UFC 291 expert picks and best bets: Who will be the UFC's next BMF?
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALLightweight contenders Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje will fight for the UFC's BMF belt in the main event of UFC 291 on Saturday night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV).
Poirier, No. 5 in ESPN's divisional rankings, will be competing for the first time this year. He beat Michael Chandler by submission in his last fight at UFC 281 in November 2022. Gaethje, ranked just ahead of Poirier, picked up a majority decision win over Rafael Fiziev in his last fight at UFC 286 in March.
In the co-main event, former middleweight champion Alex Pereira makes his 205-pound debut in the Octagon against former light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz. Could this fight be for a spot in the next title bout following Jamahal Hill's vacating of the title due to injury?
Marc Raimondi spoke to UFC welterweight Michael Chiesa, to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Lightweight: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje 2
Michael Chiesa, UFC welterweight
Tale Of The Tape
| ASPINALL | TYBURA | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30.3 | 37.7 |
| Height | 77.0 | 75.0 |
| Reach | 78.0 | 78.0 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Last Fight | Jul. 23, 2022 | Feb. 4, 2023 |
How Gaethje wins: He's got to fight Poirier the same way he fought Fiziev. The only problem is working behind that jab against a southpaw. Gaethje isn't going to find as much success in terms of the contact, but it's going to set up everything. We saw leg kicks cost Gaethje in the first fight. So, he's got to use that jab to set up the low kicks, if that's part of his shot selection this fight.
Gaethje can't stray away from the style that makes him so special, but he has to find a way to deviate from making the same mistakes. I think a lot of it revolves around using that jab to set up the low kicks and his other shots.
X-factor: Who can stay more disciplined, avoid getting wild and reckless with their shot selection. When you fight these types of guys, sometimes you've got to be a little undisciplined to find success. So, it's kind of a catch-22. Going back to Gaethje's fight against Fiziev, it was still a very entertaining fight. So even if these guys stay disciplined, they're always going to deliver these quality performances and fight of the year contenders. They'll never be in a boring fight.
Prediction: Violence. I love both guys. I just want to see both guys be able to walk out on their own two feet. But if you're asking who wins? The fans.
Betting analysis
UFC 291: Poirier Vs. Gaethje 2
| Stand-up striking offense | Poirier | Gaethje |
| Total knockdown ratio (Knockdowns/times knocked down) | 13:2 | 5:2 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| Head jab accuracy | 40% | 46% |
| Head power accuracy | 45% | 49% |
| Standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted) | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch | 0.38 | 0.04 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 37% | 25% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 69 | 20 |
| Takedown defense | 62% | 75% |
| Share of fight time in ground control | 55% | 55% |
| Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground | 0.37 | 0.00 |
| Table compiled by Reed Kuhn |
If Poirier is smart, he'll change levels when he gets the chance. Once on the ground, he'll have an advantage, and he's a legitimate threat to win by submission. The altitude of Salt Lake City is a concern for Poirier in a five-round fight. And, likely a benefit for Gaethje who trains at high altitude in Denver. However, the price is affordable for Poirier given his technical advantages.
Parker: Over 2.5 rounds (-122). In their first outing, Porier got the better of Gaethje, winning via fourth-round TKO. I have gone back and forth on this fight, but I am leaning toward Poirier to win. Both men have evolved, but Porier gets better as the fight goes on and Gaethje hasn't shown that yet in five-round fights.
There will likely be hesitation from both fighters at the start, as neither wants to get caught early. While I lean Poirier, I think the best bet for this fight is over 2.5 rounds. I don't see either fighter getting a finish until the championship rounds.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Light heavyweight: Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira
Parker: Blachowicz to win (-125). We all know the power that Pereira has and that he can end a fight with his left hook at any point. However, I have some concerns. First, he just got knocked out by Israel Adesanya less than two months ago. Is that enough time to jump back into a camp for a fight against someone like Blachowicz, who also has knockout power? Second, Pereira will be at a major grappling disadvantage, which should play a huge part. I fully expect Blachowicz to implement the same gameplan here he did against Adesanya, wrestle until the wheels fall off. There's no reason for him to stand and bang with Pereira when he has such a huge advantage on the ground.
Welterweight: Stephen Thompson vs. Michel Pereira
Kuhn: Pereira to win (+125). I hate to bet against "Wonderboy", but now over 40 years old and facing an opponent with similar unorthodox striking might negate his ability to score points from long range. Add in Pereira's Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and superior wrestling control, and we could see him pull off an upset here. He might not have fully lived up to his early hype, but he has paths to victory and returns plus money.Heavyweight: Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Parker: Rogerio de Lima to win (+170). Lewis has been finished in four out of his last five fights, and stylistically this matchup with Rogerio De Lima may turn out with the same result. For Lewis, who has been finished in his last three fights, at this point, I don't think he has the will to win anymore. When he can't land his strikes, Lewis appears to just give up in fights. To take it a step further, if Lewis loses, this may be the last time we see him step foot inside the Octagon. I can't imagine, after another loss, that Lewis would be comfortable just being a gatekeeper in the division.Rogerio de Lima is on a two-fight winning streak and has the ability to take this fight wherever he wants against Lewis. Expect him to open up with some nasty calf kicks and then eventually take this fight to the ground where he will have an advantage while neutralizing the power of Lewis. From there, Rogerio de Lima will likely either finish Lewis or tire him out to the point and get the finish in Round 2. While I don't think this fight goes the distance, Rogerio de Lima is not the type to rush a win. And the moneyline is still affordable, so we can avoid getting cute with prop bets.
Welterweight: Matthew Semelsberger vs. Uros Medic
Parker: Semelsberger to win (-210). Semelsberger carries tremendous power and is able to push a tough pace that not many can keep up with. Medic is not only taking this on short notice, he is also jumping up a weight class, which does not serve him well in this matchup. Medic is a tough striker, but doesn't have the best chin. Meanwhile, Semelsberger has been able to drop nearly every opponent he has faced. This is Semelsberger's time to shine and this is the right matchup for him to do so.
Women's flyweight: Miranda Maverick vs. Priscila Cachoeira
Kuhn: Maverick to win (-315). It's a chalky play, but history backs the younger fighter when there's nearly a decade of age difference between opponents. On paper, Cachoeira hasn't shown much of a ground game, which opens at least one option for the younger Maverick.And Cachoeira's sloppy striking defense and willingness to let opponents set the pace suggests she'll be losing on points while the fight remains standing. She has shown better power, but Maverick should be able to take a few shots as she is younger and less damaged. Maverick's price is steep, so perhaps parlay her with another deserving favorite like Rogerio de Lima or Bobby Green.
